Simulate consequences before you commit
Decision Assurance Lab is a structured simulation sprint that stress-tests proposed decisions against operational constraints, stakeholder behaviour, adoption dynamics, workforce capacity, system dependencies, financial pressures, and economic conditions. It does not promise certainty. It delivers decision confidence.
Some decisions are too expensive to learn by doing
Why this exists
Transformation decisions often fail because leaders don’t see second-order impacts, implementation failure
risks, stakeholder backlash dynamics, compounding capacity overload, hidden governance gaps, or the true cost of delay.
Most organisations only discover these after commitment, when options are limited and reputational stakes rise.
Decision Assurance Lab exists to reduce regret.
When to use it
Use a Decision Assurance Simulation Sprint when:
- The decision has real consequences for people, services or reputation
- Leaders or the board want stronger assurance before approving a path
- Signals from the Labs are mixed and you want more clarity
- Multiple initiatives collide in the same teams and you need to understand combined impact
- You want to avoid discovering second order impacts after the change is already in motion
- If the downside of being wrong is significant, this sprint helps you look again before you jump.
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Powered by the MOI Decision Framework
Decision Assurance Lab is the highest intensity application of the MOI Framework.
It makes the framework explicit through scenario testing (not prediction), confidence scoring (not fake certainty), trigger points and early warning indicators, mitigation pathways tied to real constraints, and governance-grade evidence logs.
AI is used to accelerate synthesis and scenario comparison, but it does not produce “the answer.” Decisions remain human-owned, governed, and accountable.
What it does
Decision Assurance Lab helps you answer the questions that matter: If we choose this option, what happens over 12 months? Where does it break? What must be true for success? What risks become inevitable? What are the leading indicators of failure? What can we mitigate now, while it’s still cheap?
This is not AI making decisions. It’s simulation-supported leadership.
What it doesn't do
Decision Assurance Lab does not replace executive judgement, generate fake certainty, assume one best path exists, or output “the answer.”
It provides plausible scenarios, consequence mapping, trigger points, mitigation pathways, and confidence scoring with governance evidence. You still have to decide.
We just make sure you know what you’re deciding.
How it works
Decision Framing
We clarify what decision is being made, what success means, what must be true for success, and what
constraints exist. This establishes the parameters for testing.
Reality Model Ingestion
We ingest the reality model built through operational truth (Insights Lab), adoption readiness (Change Lab),
stakeholder dynamics (Engage Lab), and community legitimacy context (Civic Lab). The model reflects reality,
not wishful thinking
Scenario Testing
We run structured scenarios: best case, expected case, failure case, narrative collapse case (civic contexts), and
capacity overload case (operational settings). This reveals what happens when things go right, go as expected, and go wrong.
Confidence Outputs and Safeguards
We provide risk triggers and early warning indicators, mitigation plan and safeguards, governance controls and
monitoring cadence, and decision confidence scorecard. You get a clear picture of likelihood, consequences, and
what to watch for.
When you use this
- AI adoption in high-trust environments like public sector and councils.
- Investment decisions over $500k.
- Organisational restructure and operating model change.
- Enterprise platform change (ERP, CRM, workforce
tools). - Service redesign with high political risk.
- Any decision where getting it wrong is expensive and visible.
What you get
- Simulation sprint report
- Scenario outcome map
- Consequence register (direct and second-order impacts)
- Risk triggers and early warning indicators
- Mitigation plan
- Decision confidence scorecard
- Evidence log for governance and board
Decision Assurance Lab FAQs
Do we always need a Decision Assurance Simulation Sprint
No. It is an optional deep dive for high stakes or high uncertainty decisions. Many engagements complete successfully without it.
How much extra time does it add
Typically one to three weeks, depending on complexity, with a small number of focused sessions.
What kinds of decisions benefit most from this sprint
Major restructures, high profile service changes, significant AI and automation programs, and large cross cutting portfolios of work.
Can we revisit a decision later using a sprint
Yes. You can run a sprint to review how a decision is playing out and test adjustments or next phases.
Is this only for public sector work
No. Any organisation facing high consequence change can use it.